ANALISIS PERDAGANGAN LUAR NEGERI DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Theoretically, the relationship between export and national income is an identity equation because in the macroeconomic theory, export is one of variables which directly forms national income. While in development economic theory, the linkage of both variables do not lead to the identity equation problem itself, but lead to whether one country export is able to activate the whole economic and at the end lead prosperity to its people. The main problem in this research is to find the relationship between export and economic growth, by formulating functional relationship among several variables which are predicted related and influenced to each other. The first functional relationship is a simple linear regression equation, and logarithm linear regression equation between export as independent variable and GDP as dependent variable. Analysis using logarithm linear regression equation is a complement. Furthermore, based on the function of export as devizen maker which then used to import capital goods and finally influence the domestic investment growth, formulates the second functional relationship as a simple linear regression equation and logarithm linear regression between investment as dependent variable and import as independent variable. The result of the data processing for the first functional relationship using the smallest regression to the second power found positive and significant relationship between export and GDP. The average elasticity of GDP of export is 0.43. it is relatively the same with the result of the data processing using both simple linear regression and logarithm linear regression equations. Determination coefficient for both models is more than 90%. On the second functional relationship using simple linear regression model found that average elasticity of investment to import is 3.64, statistically significant, and R² is 0.39. if using logarithm linear regression equation, the average elasticity of investment to import is 0.249, is not statistically significant, and R² is 0.108. The second functional relationship  used to predict the relationship between import and investment, basically cannot be used maximally. It can be recognized from the determination coefficient (R²) which is too small on both models. This condition happened because of the use of import in general instead of using import of capital goods.